Friday’s day of protests by the Public Sector Trade Unions is a hugely important day for the Trade Union and Labour Movement. It could mark a significant step in the struggle to turn back the Fianna Fáil and Green Party’s assault on the Public Sector and on the working class in general. But what is the background to the current impasse and can Cowen and Lenihan face down the massive opposition that will manifest itself throughout the country later this week? To read the Irish Press recently and listen to the various Pro Bourgeois and pro government commentators you might be mistaken in believing that there was only one possible solution to the economic and social crisis affecting the state.  The working class must be made to pay the price for the crisis. More particularly, the Public Sector workers will have to pay the price. Aside from the obvious retort that we never caused the crisis; many workers will no doubt consider that the particularly bleak situation in Ireland is in large measure the consequence of the clumsy and foolish policies of the Finance Minister and An Taoiseach who have already siphoned off billions of euro from workers pockets and then whose allies have the temerity to criticise people as unpatriotic for shopping over the border.

 Indeed the clamour to attack the public sector workers has been intense recently, but at the same time there is another trend. It’s reflected in articles such as “Will the Soldiers of Destiny flee at first sight of ICTU’s battle tanks?” by Ivan Yates in the Irish Examiner 29/10/09 and “can Cowen walk the walk?" by Cliff Taylor in the Sunday Business Post on 1/11/09.

The reality of the situation is that while on the one hand the FF leadership is firmly wedded to slash and burn economic policies such as Colm McCarthy's Bord Snip proposals they are increasingly aware of the pitfalls and political fallout from the crisis, The public sector workers make up a significant part of the electorate and the political perspectives for Cowen and Lenihan are along the lines of General Custer's half time pep talk in the Battle of the Little Big Horn. Why only this week, the Green Party in Donegal announced that it was declaring its independence from the national party and urged other areas to do the same. There have already been two recent defections from FF and the results of the An Bord Snip carve up could well see others looking to save their skins in some grand gesture or another. This is after all what happened with the last two defections.

 Much of the material in the two articles details the options open to the Finance Minister in the forthcoming budget and the state of the country. Here is what  Ivan Yates has to say:

“We will borrow €25bn this year to fund this differential. This amounts to 12% of our national income (GDP). If we don’t tackle this now, by 2011 it will rise to 15% of GDP. Our national debt could spiral from €37bn in 2007 to €160bn in 2014. Our international creditors who fund this debt will require its repayment plus additional interest. Within three years, we face the horror of all our PAYE taxes repaying debt. This simple arithmetic has a compelling logic. We must act now. In fact, we should have acted decisively in July 2008. This Government has presided over endless talk and very little action. Budget day on December 9 represents their last opportunity to turn the tide. Economic recovery, which is now beginning to emerge internationally, will not start to occur here until we bite that bullet. Investor confidence and enhanced competitiveness will only flow from decisive measures of cost correction. All costs in our economy (eg, property, payroll, energy, professional fees and public services) have to be reduced by 20%. Only then will jobs be viable and self-sustaining. “

While Cliff Taylor weighs in with the following:

“From this week on, the pressure will really start to build. It will be increased by Tuesday’s tax figures for October, which will show that revenues remain weak and that there is no chance of a bounce in receipts making the job easier. In fact, taxes remain weak and even more may have to be done to meet our budget targets. For Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s government, there is simply no easy way out.”

The risk that these two gentlemen have identified is that the weakness of the Coalition in the Dáil could compel the government to try and soften the blow. As Clive Yates points out:

“Brian Cowen has a consistent track record. He articulates tough tones of obduracy and then compromises. The past three budgets have all been followed by political climb-down (eg, medical cards for pensioners and the pension levy applying to net income).

The most recent example was the renegotiation of the programme for government with the Greens. At the last minute FF’s education stance on third-level fees and pupil-teacher ratios was abandoned in lieu of pragmatic expediency. Fancy footwork on drink-driving limits may kick that ball into the lifetime of the next government. ICTU leaders and members are not fools. Saddam Hussein’s much-feared Republican Guard dissipated in the face of a military invasion. Don’t be surprised if FF’s Soldiers of Destiny back down on the public pay battlefront. If so, we’ll all pay later.”

The Sunday Business Post article makes the point that the success of the Public Sector trade unions forthcoming action depends to a great extent on the attitude of workers in the private sector:

“Taking on the public sector unions, in an environment where the rest of the public backs this approach, is one thing; taking them on without wider public support is quite another.

The complicating factor is, of course, the anger caused by the banking crisis. No matter how much the government preaches that this is a separate issue to the public finance crisis, there is no doubt that the public are mad as hell at the need to bail out our banks at considerable risk to the taxpayer.

The political danger for the government is that this all gets caught up in one public mood of objection to anything it hopes to do in the budget. For every cut that is planned, the cry will go up: ‘‘Why should we agree to this when we are spending billions bailing out the banks?"

There will be a massive response to the trade unions call for a protest on November 6^th and rightly so, the cuts and the job losses coming as they do on top of previous cuts, wage cuts and levies mean that we simply can’t afford to take any more. To the bosses we are just statistics on balance sheets and of little importance. But in every service and every office and every classroom in the civil service, the councils, in education and in health the effects of the proposed cuts will be dramatic. The talk today has been of the fact that tax revenues are back to 2003 levels, But its one thing to wind the clock back by 6 years, its another completely to take an axe to vital services.

Its no wonder then that the Trade Union leaders have been forced to take action  and the evidence of the IMPACT ballot demonstrates that the mood among workers has immensely strengthened since March when the last big round of balloting took place in the run up to March 30^th. The unions in the  Frontline Alliance are balloting their members and the potential for a united and coordinated struggle is clear.

But despite the pressure they are under, sections of the trade union leadership are still keen to make it clear to the government exactly where they stand. Peter McLoone of IMPACT has been reported as saying that he fully expected job cuts in the years ahead. David Begg has also indicated that the unions are still firmly wedded to the idea of Social Partnership. But the bosses for sure are not thinking along the same lines. The 10 point plan that the trade union leaders are building their campaign around is very weak and offers little comfort for workers in reality. It is weak and vague, we need a clear socialist programme that breaks with the anarchy of capitalism, nationalising the banks and the major industries under workers control and management.

A commentator on RTÉ made the point recently that the Irish Trade Unions reliance on “Social Partnership” was unlikely to gain much progress given the short time up until the budget and that they had been considered weak and watery by their European counterparts. In fact Brian Lenihan made the point that if these measures had been applied in France then all hell would have broken loose.

The active trade unionists and socialists participating in the protests on Friday have to be very clear: the only way to guarantee victory is to continue to apply pressure on the trade union leaders and fight for a national coordinated campaign of industrial action across the public sector.  We need to argue to turn November 24^th into a one day Public Sector General Strike. Cowen is in a tight place, and can be forced to compromise, otherwise he risks political annihilation. But we also have to struggle to ensure that the trade union leaders don’t sell the movement short.

The battle over the future of the public sector in Ireland is key to the defence of workers living standards, jobs and conditions. It could also split the government and bring down the coalition. Cowen is a lame duck for sure; he is likely to be driven out of office at the next election in two years time. But the Fianna Fáil lame duck needs to walk the plank before then and only the resolute mass action of the working class can make that happen.

·         No job cuts and no wage cuts

·         Make the bosses pay for the crisis

·         All out on November 24^th

·         For a 24 hour Public Sector General Strike