Tens of thousands of hard pressed Irish workers in both the public and private sectors will welcome the decision of the ICTU Executive Council to call for a national day of demonstrations on November 6^th. The demonstrations are designed to influence the next government budget. But at the same time, many workers will be questioning a policy that seeks to resurrect the idea of “social partnership” via ICTU’s 10 point plan at a time when the bourgeois and the Fianna Fáil lead coalition are clearly hell bent on making the workers pay for the crisis. It’s clear that the trade union leaders are coming under pressure from their members. Some 15,000 people demonstrated today in Dublin on a Community against Cuts march. The Trade union leader’s attitude towards social partnership talks appears to be perhaps more qualified, which reflects a certain differentiation among the leaders. But it will undoubtedly be all too apparent to many workers also that the chance of reaching a satisfactory agreement, solely on the basis of negotiation and consensus under these conditions is extremely unlikely.

 Jack O’Connor made the point that “while Congress would engage with the Government if it was invited to fresh talks, its new campaign would not end until it had a proposition that was “worthy of consideration” by affiliate unions.” Irish Times

Cowen and Lenihan are also in a difficult position. They are faced with a huge economic crisis, but on the other hand they are also constrained by the fact that they now have a wafer thin majority in the Dáil.  Trotsky pointed out in the 1930’s that under conditions of crisis every attempt by the bourgeois to reach an economic and social equilibrium only serves to undermine further their social base. The coalition is in deep trouble with FF down to 9% of “Core Voters” - that is excluding not knowns – in a recent poll.

As RTÉ explains:

“Meanwhile, Minister for Social & Family Affairs Mary Hanafin has said the money is not there to pay a 3.5% pay increase to health workers.

Ms Hanafin said that since the pay agreement was reached the financial and economic situation has changed considerably.

The minister said this was why unions need to have a realistic engagement with Government about the reform. She said efficiencies and savings needed to get the economy back on the road again.

Asked if Social Partnership is still alive, Ms Hanafin said it is a central part of the stability in the economy, about maintaining and attracting jobs into the country and about getting the economy back up and running again.

However, she said Social Partnership has to be carried out within the environment Ireland has now.

It has to be realistic, she said, and people have to sit down around the table as 'we need efficiencies, we need reform' and the public are demanding that.”

An austerity policy, which is what Ms Hanafin is suggesting, with job losses, wage cuts, more levies, fear and uncertainty is a disaster for FF and the Greens electorally, but for the bourgeois paying for their crisis isn’t an option. In the final analysis they are the people who pull Cowen and Lenihan’s strings. Under these conditions, it would be a fatal mistake for the trade union leaders to believe that simply pulling workers out on demonstrations or partial actions will be sufficient to achieve an outcome. You can’t turn the workers movement on and off like a tap. ICTU and each of the unions for that matter need a clear strategy that combines mass action with a clear socialist alternative to the capitalist crisis. The huge risk is that prevarication and dithering will let the government off the hook. A defeat for the public sector workers would have a big effect across the state. It goes to show that the question of leadership under these conditions is vital.

Given the potential power of the Irish working class, which we’ve explained on many occasions was immeasurably strengthened during the Celtic Tiger years, it is not ruled out that a big industrial movement could bring down the coalition. But that in itself is not going to solve the problem. Labour is still light years away from a clear socialist programme and Fine Gael are no solution.

The monster demo on February 24^th was an indication of the mood of the working class. Coordinated national strike action, even the prospect of a one day general strike in the Public sector would be a very powerful weapon. It could stop FF in their tracks. But it must be combined with a political strategy. Labour needs a socialist programme. Ultimately there are no short cuts, this or that individual Left politician may gain a personal following, but to offer a mass alternative, the working class need to transform Labour and the Trade unions and build a Marxist leadership..